Badger Crossroads

Engineering Studies, Careers, and Transitions

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Engineers, Ethics and Climate Change Projections

For engineers, feasibility studies or due diligence evaluations for someone considering investing in a project commonly involve evaluating the output projections for power plants over a period of decades. 20-30+ years would not be uncommon. An investor in a project wants reassurance that their anticipated revenue stream will support a reasonable return on their purchase price.

A thorny question is: shall one incorporate climate change predictions into these projections? Some people are so violently opposed to the possibility of climate change existing that to even bring it up could mark you as “one of them.” Other massive established international capitalist organizations are making billion- (if not trillion-) dollar decisions based on the science. It seems that to ignore the statistics on at least historical trends, to say nothing of predictive models, would be a violation of engineering ethics.

Must engineers, regardless of their political or religious leanings, take these factors into account? Is a requirement to be willing to assess climate change impact for projects an ethical ‘litmus test’?

In this post we will examine some of the potential impacts of including/excluding this analysis into long-term output and revenue projections using a simple case study. Let’s see if temperature rise projections have material impacts.

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Decrypting a Geothermal Interview

During this year’s Geothermal Resources Council annual meeting, it was great to sit down with Alex Richter of ThinkGeoEnergy, an informative blog about geothermal energy. The discussion is linked here.

The questions were not provided in advance, so those were my frank and initial reactions to those themes. Not that there is any change in my thoughts subsequently, but it might be useful to provide some background on those positions in more detail as they might relate to you.

There are five points that merit some elaboration:

  1. Legacies
  2. The GeoVision Report
  3. Modularity and the Evil Empire
  4. ThinkGeo Benefits
  5. Krushchev

Let’s step through each. The times in the video are provided for where the various discussions start.

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Observations from the 2019 GeoVision Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office’s (GTO) GeoVision Report (“GVR”), released earlier in 2019, has all sorts of tidbits that may be appetizing to international geothermalists. For the sake of interested renewable energy students or professionals that might balk at reading the entire 218 page, seemingly U.S.-focused document, I pulled some key points out for contemplation that have wider geographic applicability. Refer to this LinkedIn post here for more details. Naturally it would be best to read the whole thing, but the post is a start.

Something refreshing is that ThinkGeo reposted the article and “riffed” on it with more interpretation and a new figure. You can find that link here. They included a Sankey diagram showing the proportions of total potential geothermal energy that flows to various uses. I appreciated their not simply reposting the article as is, but instead taking some time to reflect on what other ideas it generated, and coming up with yet another way to visualize data.

One of the most important tables in the GeoVision report is Table 3-3, which sets out basic design criteria for the various scenarios in the report. If a student is looking for reasonable and current starting data reference for a mini-study, regarding performance and economics, they could do worse than looking at the Table 3-3 assumptions. Would include it here, but then people really should delve into the full report.

If anyone happens to be at the Geothermal Resources Council Annual meeting this year (15-18 September in Palm Springs) and wants to chat about GeoVision or other topics, stop by the POWER Engineers booth and ask for me. It looks like we are right around the corner from the Department of Energy and the primary authors of the report. I’ll be around and always enjoy talking power plants and careers.

Three Ways Engineers Can Overlook Statistics

An old friend that teaches at a top-25 business school was expressing some dismay that some undergraduates do not grasp how profoundly statistics presented in class will influence their life. Those that fail to be mindful of the principles are at a serious disadvantage. Now, one could harp about slot machines or scratch-off lottery tickets, but since these writings are engineering-career focused, I’ll present several specific examples of how overlooking statistics can bite one in a work setting like an engineering consulting firm.

Tools for estimating geothermal project output (GeothermEx)

Three common situations we’ll discuss are:

  1. Proposals and expected value
  2. Capacity factor
  3. Instrumentation uncertainty, design margins and analysis
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